Hot Sectors to Work in
They look at each other for a moment.MR. MCQUIRE: Ben - I just want to say one word to you - just one word -
BEN: Yes, sir.
MR. MCQUIRE: Are you listening?
BEN: Yes I am.
MR. MCQUIRE: (gravely) Plastics.
BEN: Exactly how do you mean?
MR. MCQUIRE: There is a great future in plastics. Think about it. Will you think about it?
BEN: Yes, I will.
MR. MCQUIRE: Okay. Enough said. That's a deal.
From The Graduate screenplay by Buck Henry, 1967
In the original version of 'The Graduate', Ben (played by Dustin Hoffman) was advised to take the first steps of his career in the world of plastics. This was sound, if somewhat dull advice way back in 1967. Mr McQuire was onto something. Everything has a little plastic in the mix somewhere - the keyboard you type on, the phone you put to your ear, the box your burger comes in. A lot of money has been made out of stuff that is neither metal nor wood.
Now spool forward to 2007. What us the surest way to make your mark (and an honest living) in the opening years of the 21st century? Ten years ago, the Internet could have been recommended to almost anyone (which was probably part of the industry's eventual downfall when thousands of charlatans, marketers and speculators got on board). Nowadays, it's no longer a sure thing. However, it is already possible to discern where the smart money will jump next. Which industries are people talking up?
I happened to go to a party like the one going on around Ben and Mr McQuire. I wasn't invited, I gatecrashed for the sole purpose of picking up on what fields have a great future in store for them. It wasn't long before I was offered heartfelt, earnest opinions on the hot new sectors:
Biotechnology
This is an industry that is already worth many billions of dollars thanks to a handful of commercially applicable discoveries. The real revolution will take place over the next few decades. The genome is already being mined for biological information that links groups of genes to specific diseases. There may be 10,000 potentially pathogenic genes of which only about 500 have had drug treatments developed for them. There are no drug treatments available for the vast majority of faulty genes. With so much yet to be discovered, the future of medicine is genomic.
You might have thought that the study and treatment of genetic diseases was a relatively mature field. After all, DNA was discovered almost half a century ago and cloning is in the news every week. The genetic medicine industry is in fact at its earliest stages and the hyperbole surrounding this young market will be familiar to anybody who watched the World Wide Web grow up. It's all to play for. One company, Genset, claims that each disease gene is worth between $40 million and $80 million and that it is investigating hundreds of candidate genes. The owners of this company hope to be bought out for a minimum of $100 million or get listed on NASDAQ. The investment spotlight now shines directly on biotechnology and the previous Big Thing, the Internet, is the medium of choice for both selling and developing products.
So, what could possibly go wrong? Well, with so much hype, the reality is bound to be a little different to the claims made by the bio-entrepreneurs. Sure, there will be a new range of genomic drugs, golden bullets for dozens of diseases. However, there have already been several resounding collapses within the biotechnology industry. Certain companies have failed to produce drugs that work, are safe or are affordable. They were all investigating dead-ends, where life's complexity outstripped understanding. The genome is not a golden goose dispensing free bioinformation, it has to be unravelled and tested.
There is a cutthroat aspect to the industry that offends the ethics of some investors. There is growing resistance to the direction taken by some researchers - biotechnology has been taken on aspect of both global capitalism at its worst and science at its most irresponsible.
If you decide to join a biotech firm, be sure to do some serious research and soul-searching: does their business plan stand up and are you prepared to stand up to accusations of seeking to play God? If you lack the scientific background, opportunities in healthcare provision, sales and marketing will proliferate with each new advance. A sector of this importance requires thousands of employees and the rewards could be enormous.
Alternative Energy
In 2001, the world was rocked by a hypequake. A technology news web site leaked story about 'Ginger', a new technology that promised to revolutionise the world. There was wild speculation about what the invention, also known (teasingly) as 'IT', would turn out to be. Many hoped that it would introduce a clean and endless source of cheap energy, but this turned out to be one of the things it certainly wasn't. Ginger was launched last December as 'Segway', a two-wheeled, upright scooter powered by a set of computer-controlled electric motors. There was nothing spooky about the power source - it relied on mains power like any other gadget and had a battery that could run down at regular intervals.
Now, if there's one lesson to be learnt from the whole affair, it's the place alternative energy occupies in the post-modern minds. Many people genuinely hoped that Dean Kamen, the inventor at the centre of this affair, had developed a new kind of fuel cell, heat exchange engine or hydrogen storage device. Unfortunately, he hadn't, despite rumours and intriguing patent applications.
There are many other companies and individual researchers who are doing their best to bring alternative energy out of the milliwatt underground of obscure websites and journals into the megawatt mainstream that powers our cities and transport systems.
In 2002 , General Motors presented a new hydrogen-powered prototype - a six-foot long, six-inch thick metallic skateboard with a motor in each wheel. Major oil companies such as Shell and BP are recasting themselves as forces for global good with expensive advertising campaigns and investment in renewable energy sources driven by the wind and sun. Are these just tactics to soothe the consciences of ethical investors and concerned shareholders, or is big money really being diverted to make the world less dependent on oil?
There have been rumours for decades that the oil companies have been sitting on alternative energy developments that threaten to overturn dependence on fossil fuels. Perhaps there is new confidence that a new breed of fuel cell or super-efficient engine will actually work and the market is being primed with news of developments and prototypes? Some governments, especially in Europe, are ready to back ecologically sound initiatives as part of their commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Even in the States, government is warming to the potential of fuel cells . Now would be a good time to build a career in this promising field: the political will, financial backing and technological innovations are all in place.
Children's Books
The world of publishing was delighted and dismayed in equal measure at the news that J K Rowling, author of the Harry Potter series of books, is likely to be the first billionaire author. Delight because her success proves that there is still life in books and money to be made in publishing, even in the 21st century; dismay because a rival, Bloomsbury, was publishing the books.
The Harry Potter series is being adapted for cinema at precisely the same time as another giant of fantasy literature, The Lord of the Rings. This curious synchronicity demonstrates that books written for children, enjoyed by adults and adapted to film are efficient generators of huge sums of money and interest. How many hopeful writers are toiling over what they hope is the next publishing phenomenon, certain that their creation will capture the world's imagination and leave indelible characters, words and places on the cultural map? Which of them will hit upon the idea that mutates and takes the genre to new heights?
Publishers have never been more eager to find the next J K Rowling or J R R Tolkien. The industry has realised that kids still read books and that adults, in their millions, are prepared to read these same books openly. Popular fantasy writing has made a comeback that will probably last for years and years (or at least long enough for your to receive an advance payment on royalties...)
The Military
The days when being the armed forces stoically went about endless peacekeeping, food distribution, cattle incineration and ceremonial marching duties have past. It was as if the Army, Navy and Air Force were being wound down in preparation for the perpetual peace that would surely follow the Cold War and the 'End of History'. There was a bit of shelling and genocide in the Balkans throughout the 1990s, but nothing that our leaders believed a blue hat and a couple of cruise missile wouldn't fix. The Gulf War saw only one of the sides waging war while their enemy cowered inside vintage Soviet tanks. There was no proper soldiering to be done as such - it was all politics and button pushing.
Now, thanks to 'The War Against Terrorism' launched by President George W. Bush, the military has never had it so good. Peacekeeping (soldiering minus the good bits like shooting and blowing things up) has given way to search and destroy missions, airborne assaults, interrogation and laser target designation. Congress has dedicated billions of dollars to see off the threat of attacks upon the United States. The country's armed forces have been given a perfect opportunity both to show off new weapons and use up near-obsolete stockpiles of old munitions. It must be like the joy that comes through having a blocked pipe fixed.
The prospects are good for any individual soldier who survives the current campaign. There is already a mature market for war stories, as was demonstrated after the Gulf War in 1991. Best-selling books and popular TV series have been written about the special forces and their experiences behind enemy lines in Iraq. In fact, there is a whole sub- genre devoted to recounting the once-secret activities of the SAS and other units. The current Afghan campaign will produce an even greater number of books about what has happened in Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif, the Qala-e-Jhangi prison fortress and the Tora Bora cave complex. There is an insatiable public appetite for good war stories, especially in a climate of inaccurate information and active disinformation that characterises modern warfare.
Quite apart from the obvious benefits of selling one's experiences to the highest bidder, soldiers are being given new respect from politicians and the wider public. Soldiers returning from the Vietnam War were either rebuked or misunderstood by ungrateful civilians. This time around, the military-industrial-media complex depicts the armed forces as reluctant avengers for last year's attacks. Their place in history is assured alongside pilots in the Battle of Britain and the soldiers who stormed the beaches in Normandy. Perhaps Megadeth put it best on their debut album: " Killing Is My Business. And Business Is Good! "
Get a Trade
There are enormous sums to be earned installing and fixing things for people who cannot do so themselves. I'm not talking about versions of Windows and laser printers here. Plumbing, electrical goods, gas supplies, heating, air-conditioning, roofing and glazing are the systems that our comfortable lives depend upon. Make a name for yourself in any of these trades and you can name your own price. Many of these businesses are making profits that the most of the online world can only dream about ever seeing on their balance sheets.
If you're looking for a total career change and feel like using your hands to do the work while your mind takes care of business, find a trade. A little thought about how to present and sell your services will go a long way in securing an income for life. It's that simple.
As parts of the economy shrink, other parts swell and boom, only to wither within a few years. Investors chase this idea and that idea and behind it all, current events toss different opportunities into view or back into obscurity. The great futures and next big things are definitely out there. A whole industry in itself could be created out of seeing the plastic through all the bubbles.